The last three days of last week provided only a glimpse of the volatility surrounding the Fed's tapering timeline.  Interestingly enough, Reuters' updated primary dealer poll on Friday afternoon showed the September camp now having only 9 out of 18 votes.  Five of the remaining 9 dealers polled see the Fed tapering in Decembers, with 2 for October, 1 for "Q4" (no month selected), and one for Q1 2014.  While 17 out of 18 primary dealers see tapering starting in  2013, the difference between December and September is a big one.  We've seen 10yr yields shift up over 2.7 when September is favored and down toward 2.5 when December takes over.  Fannie 4.0 MBS do a good job of showing the two key melt-downs toward September in late June and early July, two subsequent slogs back toward neutrality, followed by the increasingly volatile bouncing into early August.

The problem is that bouncing (as the poll suggests) did anything but clearly suggest one tapering time frame over the other.  This week's data and events likely aren't up to the task either with ISM non-Manufacturing on Monday and Jobless Claims on Thursday being the only significant events other than the Treasury Auction Cycle.  These will be hard-pressed (very hard pressed) to push any snowballs off either side of the mountain (with September on one side and December on the other).  The week after this one holds more significant economic data, but it won't be until August 21st's FOMC Minutes and September 6th's post-Labor Day jobs report that anyone will really be able to cast their final vote.