What would an uneventful reaction to today's Jobless Claims data tell us?  Quite a lot actually.  Considering that last week's Claims data was the scene of a bigger move and a bigger volume spike than yesterday's FOMC Minutes, we may well conclude that this entire week is a "dud" unless we see a similarly big reaction to Claims today.  How exciting would that be in light of the fact that trading levels have been so awful?!

Even if we don't get a decently sized 'miss' or 'beat,' and even if we do and volume is huge, we already have enough evidence to consider this week something of a dud.  That's not to say it doesn't matter, but both in terms of volume and trading levels, last week mattered more.  Additionally, next week and especially the week after could completely rewrite the rules of game.  Compared to NFP Friday on Sep 6th, yesterday's sell-off and the entirety of this trading week is almost 100% insignificant.

Sometimes when markets make what look like big movements during weeks that are "duds," they do so by trading in relatively "safe" technical patterns.  This could look like revisiting a well-traveled range-boundary, or simply moving according to a clearly detectable playbook.  Bond markets provide both examples right now.  In the case of revisiting range boundary, there are 4.0 MBS:

In the case of repeating a clearly detectable playbook being used, take a look at Treasuries and equities doing the "QE On/Off" Tango.  When the yellow line is moving up and blue line moving down, stocks and bonds are selling off together, and vice versa when moving in opposite directions.  This has been happening in the short and long term as taper-talk became popular.

There is other data today, including Monthly Home Prices, Leading Indicators, and a 5yr TIPS auction, but none of it is in the same league as Claims.  The consensus is for 330k vs a previous reading of 320k and the data arrives at 8:30am.