Larry Summers' gift to bond market trading on Sunday/Monday was that we now have the honor of approaching Wednesday's FOMC events with the "Larry Summers Discount" factored out of bond prices.  it turns out this isn't quite as big as it looked to be early Monday morning, but it may have provided a slight adjustment for the previous approach. 

In conjunction with the chart below, consider that the approach to FOMC had been occurring with 10yr yields (in red) trading above the teal, white, and yellow lines all month.  The Summers adjustment  now affords 10's the opportunity to approach in a slightly more aggressive stance, but as you can see, even at it's most aggressive levels, it wasn't a game changer.  It barely challenged the longer term green line and wasn't able to close outside it.

If bond markets were so clear to return near previous levels after that, it's not overly likely that today's Consumer Price Index data is going to do any better (forecast to rise slightly at the Core level from 1.7 to 1.8), let alone the NAHB Housing Market Index which is forecast to NOT reflect any of the recent concerns seen in other housing market metrics (59 vs 59 previously). 

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Tue, Sep 16 2013 - Fri, Sep 20 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Sep 16

08:30

NY Fed manufacturing

Sep

--

9.10

8.24

09:15

Capacity utilization mm

Aug

%

77.8

77.6

09:15

Industrial output mm

Aug

%

0.3

0.0

Tue, Sep 17

08:30

Annual Core CPI

Aug

%

1.8

1.7

08:30

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Aug

%

0.2

0.2

08:30

Core CPI

Aug

%

0.2

0.2

10:00

NAHB housing market indx

Sep

--

60

59

Wed, Sep 18

07:00

MBA Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

385.0

08:30

Housing starts number mm

Aug

ml

0.913

0.896

08:30

Building permits: number

Aug

ml

0.950

0.954

14:00

FOMC Announcement

N/A

%

--

--

14:00

FOMC Economic Projections

N/A

--

--

--

14:30

FOMC Chair Press Conference

N/A

--

--

--

Thu, Sep 19

08:30

Current account

Q2

bl

-96.8

-106.1

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

330

292

10:00

Existing home sales

Aug

ml

5.34

5.39

10:00

Philly Fed Business Index

Sep

--

10.1

9.3

10:00

Leading index chg mm

Aug

%

0.4

0.6

13:00

10yr TIPS Auction

--

bl

13.0

--