Larry Summers' gift to bond market trading on Sunday/Monday was that we now have the honor of approaching Wednesday's FOMC events with the "Larry Summers Discount" factored out of bond prices. it turns out this isn't quite as big as it looked to be early Monday morning, but it may have provided a slight adjustment for the previous approach.
In conjunction with the chart below, consider that the approach to FOMC had been occurring with 10yr yields (in red) trading above the teal, white, and yellow lines all month. The Summers adjustment now affords 10's the opportunity to approach in a slightly more aggressive stance, but as you can see, even at it's most aggressive levels, it wasn't a game changer. It barely challenged the longer term green line and wasn't able to close outside it.
If bond markets were so clear to return near previous levels after that, it's not overly likely that today's Consumer Price Index data is going to do any better (forecast to rise slightly at the Core level from 1.7 to 1.8), let alone the NAHB Housing Market Index which is forecast to NOT reflect any of the recent concerns seen in other housing market metrics (59 vs 59 previously).
Week Of Tue, Sep 16 2013 - Fri, Sep 20 2013 |
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Time |
Event |
Period |
Unit |
Forecast |
Prior |
Mon, Sep 16 |
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08:30 |
NY Fed manufacturing |
Sep |
-- |
9.10 |
8.24 |
09:15 |
Capacity utilization mm |
Aug |
% |
77.8 |
77.6 |
09:15 |
Industrial output mm |
Aug |
% |
0.3 |
0.0 |
Tue, Sep 17 |
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08:30 |
Annual Core CPI |
Aug |
% |
1.8 |
1.7 |
08:30 |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Aug |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
08:30 |
Core CPI |
Aug |
% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
10:00 |
NAHB housing market indx |
Sep |
-- |
60 |
59 |
Wed, Sep 18 |
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07:00 |
MBA Mortgage market index |
w/e |
-- |
-- |
385.0 |
08:30 |
Housing starts number mm |
Aug |
ml |
0.913 |
0.896 |
08:30 |
Building permits: number |
Aug |
ml |
0.950 |
0.954 |
14:00 |
FOMC Announcement |
N/A |
% |
-- |
-- |
14:00 |
FOMC Economic Projections |
N/A |
-- |
-- |
-- |
14:30 |
FOMC Chair Press Conference |
N/A |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Thu, Sep 19 |
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08:30 |
Current account |
Q2 |
bl |
-96.8 |
-106.1 |
08:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
w/e |
k |
330 |
292 |
10:00 |
Existing home sales |
Aug |
ml |
5.34 |
5.39 |
10:00 |
Philly Fed Business Index |
Sep |
-- |
10.1 |
9.3 |
10:00 |
Leading index chg mm |
Aug |
% |
0.4 |
0.6 |
13:00 |
10yr TIPS Auction |
-- |
bl |
13.0 |
-- |
|