Today brings the biggest set of events in weeks, perhaps months.  Starting at 2pm, the FOMC (aka "the Fed") releases it's official policy statement and economic projections.   Then at 2:30pm, Fed Chair Yellen conducts one of the periodic post-announcement press conferences.  Let's take a quick inventory of what we know and where we are heading into today.

• 2014 has been something of a surprise so far in that bond markets have been refreshingly resilient.  There are several fairly solid explanations for this, but one of the best is that the economic recovery isn't really as solid as some of the numbers suggest.  The Fed has increasingly expressed awareness of the unsatisfying recovery in 2014 and market participants went from fearing a more hawkish Fed to believing in a Fed that "gets it" as far as the realities of what higher rates would do to the fragile recovery.
• Markets have recently gotten scared about the possibility that the Fed might not "get it" as much as hoped.  There have been several headlines from Fed speakers alluding to the need to hike rates sooner than expected.  Even the dovish Fed members have been arguably shifting their tone regarding the removal of accommodation.  In short, it feels like we're entering some sort of transitional phase where the Fed is not only almost done tapering, but where we might even survive without asset purchases.  That would be a "first" since the the financial crisis.
• With all that in mind, 10yr yields are still in the high 2.5's and mortgage rates are in the low 4's.  Obviously bond markets are either not buying it, or they have other reasons to be trading in generally strong territory compared to what the fundamental backdrop suggests.  "Other reasons" are a real benefactor and they're almost all European.  Whether we're talking about general, ongoing EU market weakness, or the prospect for even more asset purchases, US rates have managed to stay lower than they otherwise would be due to Europe.

I've personally been pleasantly surprised over the recent years at how well Bernanke and now Yellen seem to "get it" with respect to the true nature of the recovery.  Because of that, I think it's unlikely that we'd take a direct hit from something like the removal of the "considerable time" verbiage without some other change or acknowledgement that offsets it.  Conversely, if the Fed leaves the "considerable time" verbiage unchanged, it's also unlikely they'd forgo qualifying that with other verbiage that pays some respect to the fact that rates are likely going up in 2015, and possibly faster than expected.

Either way, with so many market participants on both sides of the debate, anything the Fed says will end up being a surprise for enough of the market to have a big impact.