The week ahead is something of a palette-cleanser to last week's bolder flavors.  Big-ticket events will now be few and far between, but the opportunities to reflect and consider the path ahead are still there. 

The only major piece of scheduled data is the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting on Wednesday at 2pm.  Apart from that, even second tier events are essentially absent (just Jobless Claims on Thursday and that's been a consistent non-event).  Instead, we'll hear from numerous Fed speakers as well as the European Central Bank chief on Thursday morning in a panel discussion with Fed Vice Chair Fischer.

The deluge of Fed speakers along with the FOMC Minutes will provide the backdrop for bond markets to consider their path forward.  Last week saw a strong move toward lower yields.  It was notable for 2 reasons. 

First, it happened so quickly that markets already began pushing back.  Second, that "pushing back" keeps 10yr yields from breaking below an important trend--a trend that must be broken if we have to avoid looking like we're slowly and steadily selling-off toward higher rates. 

In other words, breaking the line in the chart below is the prerequisite for having a shot at new lows for 2014.  Conversely, failing to break it reinforces the possibility that the lows are in.