10yr yields dropped a precipitous 10bps yesterday. While this isn't much compared to some of the more volatile days of the past 6 years, it's one of the most abrupt moves lower in the past few years. It's strength is all the more impressive in that it comes after nearly two weeks of moderate improvements.
But is this much of a rally a good thing? First of all, yes. It accomplishes the primary goal of breaking 10yr yields definitively back under 2.50--something we had yet to be totally convinced about.
Second of all, no... From a pure day-to-day standpoint, such a strong rally brings about the rapid maturation of technical levels and leaves us at risk for at least a token bounce back.
All that having been said, technicals are definitely not the only game in town at the moment. Today's biggest potential market mover will be the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and the ensuing press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi. Apart from that, any major movement in equities could get bonds' attention yet again. Stocks and bonds have been super best friends ever since the 9/17 FOMC Announcement.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 99-11 : +0-00 | FNMA 3.5 102-28 : +0-00 | FNMA 4.0 105-29 : +0-00 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.5160 : -0.0037 | 10 YR 2.4090 : +0.0200 | 30 YR 3.1270 : +0.0300 |
Pricing as of 10/2/14 7:30AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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