Today has been the calmest day of the week so far, which isn't saying too much considering the previous 3 days were the most volatile of the year. 10yr yields drifted as low as 2.12 overnight and were then jolted higher to 2.21 after comments from European Central Bank governor Coeure around 4am.
This lets us know that markets are indeed freaked out about "global growth concerns"--the catchphrase of the week. Reason being, the Coeure comments were about asset purchases happening soon. Normally that would be positive for bond markets. The fact it was negative suggests that "global growth concerns" had been hitting stocks and that the money had been finding its way into bond markets. The promise of impending liquidity would ease those concerns and unwind some of that "flight-to-safety" momentum.
Bonds recovered into the morning hours, but resumed selling when US traders began their day. Stronger Housing Starts data added to the weakness. By 11:30, however, European markets closed and it was game-on for bond markets again. This showed us just how clearly today's trading has been dictated by "global growth concerns." Treasuries have followed European equities more than anything else, and were finally given permission to rally after the European close.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-23 : +0-03 | FNMA 3.5 103-24 : +0-03 | FNMA 4.0 106-09 : +0-02 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.3670 : +0.0277 | 10 YR 2.1830 : +0.0315 | 30 YR 2.9570 : +0.0220 |
Pricing as of 10/17/14 1:21PMEST |