It's been a solid day for bond markets so far, with most of that solidness coming courtesy of a big correction to yesterday's European bond market weakness.  Some measure of positive bounce is logical given the boatloads of weaker economic data out overnight in Europe, but the rally was more aggressive than usual.

Treasuries took heart and followed German Bunds (the benchmark representative for "European Bond Markets") lower in yield.  10yr yields hit 8am right in line with yesterday's best levels and Fannie 3.5s opened roughly 6/32nds higher.  From there, the first round of morning data was largely ignored and gains continued.

The big turning point today was at 10am with the release of the Philly Fed survey, which beat its forecast by the largest amount ever, and rose to levels not seen since 1993.  What's more, the survey made no mention of special circumstances that might have contributed to the insanely high number.  Bonds lost all their domestic session gains, but are still holding on to some of the overnight gains.  In other words, trading levels are still better than they were at yesterday's close, and we've found just enough support to avoid negative reprices from all but one or two lenders.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-02 : +0-05
FNMA 3.5
103-15 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
106-10 : +0-04
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5210 : -0.0040
10 YR
2.3420 : -0.0157
30 YR
3.0590 : -0.0180
Pricing as of 11/20/14 12:19PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:32AM  :  Decent Bounce, Reprices on Hold
11:02AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Now
10:13AM  :  Might Have to Start Thinking About Negative Reprices after 10am Data
9:36AM  :  Bond Markets Add to Overnight Gains Ahead of Stock Open

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Nathan Stotlar  :  "Tis the season, I am thankful fro the wealth of knowledge that I have gained here and am hopeful I give something back (and not just sarcasm). "
Matthew Graham  :  "It's clear that Philly Fed staff is on vacation and their cat is walking on the keyboard "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - PHILADELPHIA FED NEW ORDERS INDEX NOVEMBER 35.7 VS OCT 17.3"
Victor Burek  :  "has to be a mistake"
Sung Kim  :  "omg"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS CONDITIONS NOVEMBER 40.8 (CONSENSUS 18.3) VS OCT 20.7"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US OCT EXISTING HOME SALES 5.26 MLN UNIT RATE, HIGHEST SINCE SEPT 2013 (CONSENSUS 5.16 MLN), VS SEPT 5.18 MLN (PREV 5.17 MLN)-NAR"
Matthew Graham  :  "it means there's a huge alternative to Treasuries, which is bad, BUT we think traders already "made room" for it yesterday, making it a good thing again now."
Victor Burek  :  "gonna be 80% of peeps disappointed they couldn't get it, so maybe they come back to treasuries"
Matt Hodges  :  "that means there's bond money out there, which can't be bad for treasuries, right?"
Matthew Graham  :  "that's kind of like a Treasury auction having a 5.0 bid-to-cover"
Matthew Graham  :  "Alibaba order books are over-subscribed at least 5x already"
Victor Burek  :  "good to see the slightly higher inflation didn't spook the market"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. OCT CPI UNCHANGED (+0.0038; CONSENSUS -0.1 PCT), EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.2 PCT (+0.2032; CONS +0.1 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 291,000 NOV 15 WEEK (CONSENSUS 285,000) FROM 293,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 290,000)"