Late in November, I suggested that the first week of December would give us the information needed to identify the trend that would carry us into the end of 2014.  The interesting thing about the first day of trading following that week was that it was positive for bond markets despite the big NFP beat.  That was such a strong showing (and perhaps a bit surprising) that we had to pinch ourselves yesterday to make sure it was real.  Yep... still rallying.

After today, we'll be right in that moment where we're either going to wake up or realize that this amazing reality is, in fact, a reality.

The only hitch is that the prose in this dream has all been in German so far.  In other words, it could just be the ongoing rally in European bond markets aiding US bond market resilience.  Who knows how we'd be trading if not for German 10yr yields making yet another new all-time low yesterday?

That "European stuff" is really the centerpiece at the moment, with equities markets being a distant second, followed by tradeflows from corporate debt hedging.  None of these things adhere to a calendar in the same way economic data does, so they're fairly hard to discuss ahead of time apart from simply pointing them out.  The only big-ish potential market mover on the domestic calendar will be the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction.