In the shadow of October 15th--by some measures, the most volatile day in the history of Treasury trading--everything that's followed has been exceedingly tame by comparison. The correction leading back toward slightly higher rates was mechanical and non-threatening. And now November is slipping away with mortgage rates having held 4.0% the entire time and 10yr yields staying in the 2.3's.
Today's session never had much of a chance to break the bigger-picture mold. To end the week on anything other than a sideways note, we would have needed to see such a big rally or sell-off that it wouldn't have made any sense in the current context.
Overnight headlines from Draghi helped a bit and China's rate cut hurt a bit, but bonds ground to stronger levels very slowly. It's tempting to say that suggests a positive theme, but we ended up seeing just as much resistance to gains at 2.31% (10yr yields) as we saw support for losses at 2.36%. That's been the entire range this week since 9am Monday.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-10 : +0-07 | FNMA 3.5 103-21 : +0-05 | FNMA 4.0 106-15 : +0-04 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.5050 : -0.0040 | 10 YR 2.3120 : -0.0260 | 30 YR 3.0190 : -0.0350 |
Pricing as of 11/21/14 5:51PMEST |