Anxiety and anticipation are in full supply as markets approach Thursday's exceptionally important ECB news.  Last Friday, this anxiety took the form of liquidation in bond markets.  The near-term limits were seemingly found (right around 1.70% in terms of 10yr yields) and it was time to begin a broader consolidation ahead of the ECB news.

If you're a 10yr yield that just put in a solid resistance (floor) bounce at 1.70, what's the most likely target for a support (ceiling) bounce?  99 out of 100 10yr yields that I asked said 1.84-ish.  I wasn't surprised.  This is the big-picture technical level that dominated the discussion from mid 2011 to mid 2013.  No other level is a better threshold for the 'golden era' of US bond market trading levels and volatility (really low rates and volatility!).

Maybe that 1.7 to 1.84 range will be all we see between now and Thursday's ECB.  If so, it would make great sense from that technical standpoint.  If not, there's only one more day for something different to happen.

As noted in the Mid-Day, MBS underperformed Treasuries and mortgage rates underperformed MBS in most cases.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-20 : +0-04
FNMA 3.5
105-02 : +0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-23 : -0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5000 : +0.0124
10 YR
1.7900 : -0.0408
30 YR
2.3760 : -0.0702
Pricing as of 1/20/15 4:27PMEST
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:51PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Widespread Negative Reprices Now Likely
1:42PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Now a Bit More Serious
12:47PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk a Consideration for Some Lenders
9:28AM  :  Bond Markets Resilient Overnight Despite Stronger Data in Europe
MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Joseph Daquino  :  "I just show them an amortization schedule from the current loan vs. the new loan and the amount owed to interest each month, even with a .5% savings if the loan is no cost, it is a no brainer."
Tim Robinson  :  "I got quite a few deals last week this way. The borrowers object to only a .5 -.75% savings and going back to a full 30 years again. I ask them if they are comfortable with their current payment. If so I just tell the borrowers to put the monthly payment savings back in the payment and then calculate the interest savings and how much faster they pay it off. And I do it at zero cost to the borrower other than the appraisal. Bingo!!! I am now swamped with past customers and I already have a lot of their paperwork. "
Joseph Daquino  :  "You are better off just making an extra principal payment on your loan each month. That way, if the budget should change at any point, you are not married to that 15 year payment."
Joseph Daquino  :  "$623 / month?? Yeah......not quite"
Christopher Stevens  :  "I am not really seeing income rise and an extra $600/mo. is a tough nut to swallow even with falling gas prices."
Christopher Stevens  :  "just read an article on refinancing in the NYT and laughed out loud at this paragraph "Or here’s another intriguing possibility. Let’s say your family has seen its income rise since originally taking out the home loan in mid-2013. The interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is now a mere 2.9 percent. An option would be to refinance the $389,825 currently owed into a 15-year mortgage. That would increase the monthly payment by $623 a month — but would result in paying the home loan off entirely in 2030, not 2043 as the family was previously on track to do.""