After briefly breaking above the 1.84% inflection point amid last week's ECB-related volatility, 10yr Treasury yields have been religiously leaning on it as a supportive ceiling.  In fact, they were leaning on that ceiling well before the breakout too--as early as Jan 16.  The foil on the other side of the trading range has been 1.75-1.76% which got it's third major bounce today as well, and second bounce in the past two days counting Monday's overnight session.

When the domestic interest rate benchmark bounces off key resistance levels and key supportive levels in the same day, and for two days in a row, we can safely conclude that bond markets are trading a range and waiting for the next major input.

Such "inputs" can be big events or simply an eventual overflow of pent-up trading momentum.  In cases where a Fed Announcement is on the near-term calendar, it makes good enough sense to lean on that as the input in question.  The only reason not to view that as an utter no-brainer would be that domestic data and monetary policy haven't been nearly the market movers that European events have been.  Even so, the Fed's rate hike outlook will always be a factor for financial markets, even if the implication for mortgage rates is indirect at best.

As for the nuts and bolts of the trading day, participation was sapped by the snow storm on the East Coast.  Buyers outnumbered sellers in the morning.  It could have just as easily gone the other way, but the weakness in equities markets may have provided insulation there.  By that same token, late strength in equities coincided with a bounce back to unchanged levels for bond markets.