The most interesting news overnight was the reaffirmation from Greek leaders that the country is done with austerity, no matter the cost. At this point, European trading levels are suggesting two things that didn't used to go together: a Greek Eurozone exit AND not much resulting drama.
In terms of technical support 1.953 was a key level for 10yr yields on Friday. Before the 3pm official close in Treasuries, yields never went higher. The analogous level for Fannie 3.0 MBS would be 102-08. After an disappointingly shallow overnight rally, 10yr yields are back within striking distance of that technical support (1.941) and Fannie 3.0s are a mere tick above their line in the sand (102-09).
A relatively stronger move for bond markets in Europe failed to translate to material gains in US markets. Additionally, big corporate bond issuance (Microsoft, in particular) and the upcoming auctions are creating supply pressures. Corporate debt not only acts as an alternative to other bond market investments, but also often uses short positions (read: higher rates) in Treasuries to hedge against interest rate changes during the issuance process.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 102-10 : +0-06 | FNMA 3.5 105-05 : +0-06 | FNMA 4.0 107-01 : +0-04 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.6480 : +0.0005 | 10 YR 1.9390 : -0.0194 | 30 YR 2.5030 : -0.0278 |
Pricing as of 2/9/15 12:55PMEST |