The last few highlighted comments at the bottom of this page tell the story of the late-day headlines. The first one caught markets' attention:
RTRS- EU, GREECE COME TO AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE, MEETINGS TO CONTINUE-CNBC
And a few minutes later, the rest of the wires simply made for comedy and frustration:
RTRS- EUROGROUP SOURCE TELLS REUTERS NO "DEAL" YET WITH GREECE, MAY BE
AN AGREEMENT TO EXPLORE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDING BAILOUT PROGRAMME
RTRS - SECOND EUROGROUP SOURCE SAYS GREECE AGREES IN PRINCIPLE TO MEET ITS FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS IN DRAFT COMMON STATEMENT
RTRS - GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS NO AGREEMENT IN EUROGROUP, GREECE WILL NOT ACCEPT AN EXTENSION OF CURRENT BAILOUT
RTRS - GREEK OFFICIAL SAYS EUROGROUP DISCUSSIONS TO CONTINUE, AIMING AT MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL AGREEMENT
Translation: no new agreement or extension--just a bunch of meaningless headlines that serve no purpose other than mildly spooking a mildly anxious market.
After all, we've been eying 2.04% in 10yr yields as an important inflection point, and from a pre-headline level just over 2.0%, the headlines never pushed 10's higher than 2.028. That's not even very interesting, and basically in line with the day's pre-auction high yields. That said, the timing of the news could certainly have played into the lack of market response--not to mention the most meaningful headline was quickly retracted.
If the initial, mild reaction is any guide, there are no surprises in the direction of the move. The friendlier Greece is with the Eurozone, the worse it is for domestic bond markets. I think more than a few market participants fancied a higher likelihood of Greece exiting the Eurozone this time around, and if these headlines tell us anything it's that both sides are trying to avoid that. Net/net, the implication is negative for bond markets, or at least there's a risk of further negative interpretation heading into tomorrow's European session.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 101-19 : -0-03 | FNMA 3.5 104-16 : -0-03 | FNMA 4.0 106-20 : -0-01 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.6720 : +0.0160 | 10 YR 2.0210 : +0.0170 | 30 YR 2.5880 : +0.0060 |
Pricing as of 2/11/15 5:28PMEST |