Did you catch the Day Ahead? It turned out to be pretty timely. Here it is if you need it:
MBS Day Ahead: Europe no Longer Fears Dominoes; Up to Greece to Fold
Since then, Greece has folded and unfolded several times, and hilariously at that!
First up, we had the other side of the negotiation table confirming what I laid out in the article this morning. In short, the powers that be are indeed prepared for Greece to exit. Here are a few wires:
RTRS- ECB OFFICIALS ARE PREPARING FOR GREEK EXIT FROM EURO ZONE - GERMAN MAGAZINE SPIEGEL
RTRS- ECB STAFF ARE PREPARING INTERNAL CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR HOW REST OF EURO ZONE COULD BE KEPT INTACT - SPIEGEL
(BFW) *GERMAN-LED BLOC WILLING TO LET GREECE LEAVE EURO
That kicked off a bull run for core bond markets, dragging overnight Treasury trading well into positive territory and resulting in a green open for MBS. From there, things just got silly. Most of the silliness is recounted in the featured comments below, but there's one late entrant. It follows the almost unbelievably comical news that Greece claimed to have sent the wrong letter to the Eurogroup yesterday, and that they'd meant to send one that agreed to more of the conditions.
If that sounded unbelievable, there could be a reason. Or the reason itself could be unbelievable, depending on whom you wish to believe. Reason being, a Greek official subsequently said that no such letter was ever sent. Of course we have no idea who's lying here, but that's half the fun. TV and movie producers can only dream of drama this good.
The trading response remained fairly predictable. With each headline that suggested more compromise or a more likely resolution, bonds have lost ground. Each headline that makes an agreement seem unlikely has resulted in improvements. So far so good, though we're still waiting to hear from Europgroup chief Djisselbloem who said earlier that he'd have something to say in a few hours.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 101-15 : +0-08 | FNMA 3.5 104-15 : +0-06 | FNMA 4.0 106-22 : +0-04 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.5980 : -0.0230 | 10 YR 2.0570 : -0.0650 | 30 YR 2.6700 : -0.0710 |
Pricing as of 2/20/15 12:20PMEST |
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
10:02AM : Bonds Add to Overnight Gains as NYSE Opens Lower
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "wow... you can't make this stuff up: "FRANKFURT (MNI) - The Greek government accidentally sent the wrong letter
to Brussels on Thursday with the intended version going a step further accepting
conditions agreed to by the previous government, Germany's Bild Zeitung reported
Friday citing government sources. ""
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EUROGROUP'S DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS HOPES TO GIVE MORE ON OUTCOME OF TALKS IN "A COUPLE OF HOURS""
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EUROGROUP'S DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS THERE IS REASON FOR SOME OPTIMISM AFTER TALKS WITH MAIN PLAYERS IN THE GREEK BAILOUT TALKS"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - GREEK FINANCE MINISTER SAYS EXPECTS DEAL WITH EURO ZONE, HOPEFULLY WE'LL COME OUT WITH "WHITE SMOKE""
Matthew Graham : "that bloomberg video is really good. Anyone who wants a quick primer on Eurodrama should watch. I'd take the part at 10min with a grain of salt. As I laid out this morning, the systemic domino thing is way overstated right now. I might go so far as to say nonexistent bogeyman."
tim proffer :
"Then there was this little video which is a history lesson that Bloomberg put together last week which literally visualizes the EU Debt Crises. View Video Which goes right in line of why Europe matters" tim proffer :
"If you were interested this came out yesterday. Its what Greece owes and when http://mndne.ws/1AXR55P" Matthew Graham : "so, it looks like an exit is on the table considering the source"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- EU COMMISSION PRESIDENT JUNCKER SAYS A GREEK EXIT FROM THE EURO WON'T HAPPEN - GERMAN MAGAZINE WIWO"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FAYMANN SAYS FIRMLY ON SIDE OF THOSE WHO WANT GREEK SOLUTION TODAY"
Matthew Graham : "austria spilling the beans? RTRS - AUSTRIAN CHANCELLOR FAYMANN TELLS REUTERS SCHAEUBLE REJECTION OF GREEK PROPOSAL WAS "EXAGGERATED""
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- PARIS - GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS ALL EURO COUNTRIES HAVE GOAL OF KEEPING GREECE IN EURO ZONE"
Matthew Graham : "ok that's enough out of you Francois "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FRANCE'S HOLLANDE SAYS THERE IS NO GREEK EXIT SCENARIO"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- FRANCE'S HOLLANDE SAYS GREECE MUST STAY IN EURO ZONE"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- PARIS - GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS NEED FOR "SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS" IN GREEK BAILOUT EXTENSION AGREEMENT BEFORE GERMAN PARLIAMENT CAN DECIDE"
Victor Burek : "*EU OFFICIAL SAYS GREECE DEAL FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKING UNLIKELY"
John Tassios : "my gut says, today will come and go, and so will many more fridays. in general, European politicians are masters at grandstanding with little to no results"
John Tassios : "per newspapers in Greece, Greek PM made some concessions but insists Euro Group must make some concessions too or no deal. As of yet, no word from Germany or Troika as of yet to consider latest greek offer "
Christopher Stevens : "Greece tentatively agrees to "extension" but refuses to call it a bailout. Rest of Europe calls it a bailout. Sure will be a contentious day over there as they meet to"