What is a dip-buyer? That's just a fancy term for an investor who has seen prices fall far enough to entice them to buy in the hopes of a bounce. It's like catching the proverbial falling knife. Sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn't.
Today it didn't.
There was longer term dip-buying taking place over the last few days with 2.15% seen as a supportive level in 10yr yields. Those buyers were quickly forced to liquidate after this morning's thunderous 295k print on NFP. The lack of more meaningful wage growth was completely overshadowed by the job creation. In general, the report seemed to catch market participants off guard. There was a lot of media hype about the weather taking a toll on today's numbers. Obviously, it didn't.
After the first troop of dip-buyers was burned alive, more heroically (or foolishly?) stepped in at 2.18. They even got some quick help from the traders who had bet on higher rates taking a quick opportunity to book profits (which they accomplish by buying the bonds previously sold short). But the flames were still burning. Markets continued to punish anyone foolish enough to buy until no more buyers remained. At that point, it's up to seller exhaustion to stem the tide, and that looks to be taking shape around 2.25 in 10yr yields.
It's an ugly day, and not a promising development for the long-term trend.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-19 : -0-26 | FNMA 3.5 103-29 : -0-19 | FNMA 4.0 106-11 : -0-11 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.7190 : +0.0760 | 10 YR 2.2500 : +0.1330 | 30 YR 2.8580 : +0.1320 |
Pricing as of 3/6/15 12:31PMEST |