As is often the case, this week has the dual distinction of hosting 'month-end' as well as nonfarm payrolls.  Until recently, the ECB was almost always holding policy meetings on the Thursday of NFP weeks, thus adding to the volatility.  Under their new schedule, that will only happen 5 times this year, and this week isn't one of them.  Even so, there is plenty of data and plenty of potential for movement.

The calendar wastes no time in offering up a moderately important report with Incomes and Outlays leading off at 8:30am this morning.  The Fed has indicated they don't need to wait for wage growth to pick up before raising rates, but you can bet if they do see it, it would steel their resolve.

Tuesday brings more semi-important data with Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence.  That said, I'd expect month-end tradeflows to dominate the momentum.  That means that trading stands some chance of moving in the opposite direction of the data (because trading momentum is likely on a preset course beginning Tuesday morning).

April Fool's Day (stay vigilant!) marks the final approach to the week's data headliners.  Wednesday itself has 3 biggies: ADP, ISM Manufacturing, and ISM Non-Manufacturing.  These are 3 of the top 5 market movers in terms of economic data.  Even though they don't always garner the obligatory reaction that we'll see after NFP Friday, they can result in big moves if they're far from consensus.  Combine that with a potential tradeflow shift into the new month, and the movement could be quite big if all factors are pushing the same direction.

Thursday is a bit of an 'also-ran,' with no significant data on tap (true, the trade gap, jobless claims, and Factory Orders all report, but also true that none of these matter these days).  Yellen is scheduled to speak at a conference at 8:30am, but it's not a venue for bombshells.  Finally, NFP stands along on Friday morning.

Depending on how the week progresses, one or both of the inflection points in the immediate vicinity could be tested or broken.  These appear as the upper and lower lines on the chart below. 

If those break, the next technical levels are not only farther away, but haven't been seen as frequently. It would also become a more fluid situation at that point, and likely provide a glimpse of potential shifts in the long term trend.  The most important defensive pivot in the event of significant weakness would be anything close to the upper line on the chart below.  There is a good amount of insulation between here and there, but not enough to rule out traversing on a Nonfarm Payrolls week.