One nice thing about the current unwillingness on the part of bond markets to break through resistance levels is that they've been similarly unwilling to sell-off past close-by support levels.  In other words, if we're not rallying, at least we're not selling off.

Obviously, this makes for a narrow range.  Talking about it is getting old, and it's unlikely that it will continue to be this narrow all the way until next week's FOMC Announcement.  But motivation is obviously not coming from domestic economic data.  That's especially true today because there is none!

In terms of foreign data, however, there are a few important reports, including Eurozone and German ZEW Economic Sentiment.  These will be released by the time you read this and the market reaction to those represents the first chance for data to move markets this week.  Granted, the spillover to Treasuries has been and will continue to be minimal, but considering how flat domestic bond markets are, any bit of motivation will be felt.

The risk is that the economic data doesn't have its intended effect due to the technical situation in German Bunds (their 10yr sovereign debt, and the European Benchmark).  It's not that European bond yields probably won't continue making new lows, but in so doing, they'll likely undergo a periodic correction or two.  Such corrections are often foreshadowed by the sort of technical 'grind-to-a-halt' seen in Bunds over the past 3 sessions.  If the bounce transfers to Treasuries, it could be enough to give us our pre-FOMC trend (and not the fun kind). 

2015-4-20 bunds


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-20 : +0-04
FNMA 3.5
105-06 : +0-00
FNMA 4.0
106-30 : +0-00
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5240 : +0.0000
10 YR
1.8720 : -0.0140
30 YR
2.5400 : -0.0160
Pricing as of 4/21/15 7:30AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Apr 21
0:00 Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR *