Rates been in a narrow, noncommittal, sideways range for weeks.  The last two days were especially barren in that they lacked any economic data, which might have at least offered some chance to see a connection between events and market movement.  While there is still no guarantee of such a connection today, at least we'll add an "event" to the mix.  At least there's a chance.

The event in question is Existing Home Sales.  Like a 4th string quarterback that miraculously gets called off the bench after 3 unexpected injuries, the Existing Sales report gets a spotlight much brighter than it otherwise would.  Indeed, it is our only hope today to get some sort of logical momentum going (as opposed to seemingly random tradeflow-motivated trading). 

Unfortunately, if logic prevails, the commentary won't be positive for bond markets.  This has to do with Pending Home Sales typically foreshadowing Existing Sales for the following month.  In other words, if Pending Sales rose abruptly last month, then Existing Sales are more likely to rise this month.

Indeed the consensus forecast is for an improvement to a 5.03 mln unit annual pace from 4.88 mln.  Last month's increase in Pending Sales suggests the improvement could be even bigger.  While that wouldn't necessarily be a major consideration for bond markets, it's the only quarterback we have today--at least in a traditional sense where economic data moves rates.  Of course we'll still have the random market movers to contend with (European markets, corporate bond hedging, tradeflows).