Stop me if you've heard this one before.  There's this epic long-term inflection point defined by 10yr yield levels 1.84-1.86.  It stretches back to 2011, when it acted as uncanny resistance for almost the entire year.  It acted as similarly uncanny support for most of 2012, and had been all but forgotten until late 2014.  That's when the wild October 15th rally stopped at 1.86 after the day opened at 2.20!  What are the chances that Treasuries move that far and land right on an important technical level? 

Then again, that's why technical levels are important.  There's some magic in there that we'll never be able to define, but we know magic when we see it. 

Of late, this technical zone has been magically frustrating all attempts to break below.  Here's how the past few weeks look followed by a longer term chart that shows how this coincides with trend-based resistance:

Never say never, but it increasingly looks like this will be a tough nut to crack without the Fed saying something week after next that bonds find exceptionally helpful.  Again, it LOOKS that way today.  There's no way to know how that might change, but today's data would be hard-pressed to change it.  Not only that, but market movement yesterday suggests that weak data is a known known, and it's only strong data that will get it's due in terms of market movement potential.  If that's true, batten down the hatches.