After rising to the highest side of the long term trend last week, yields have a chance to explode higher, or re-commit to the range this week.  "Exploding higher" could be problematic, or course, but it's good to remember that there was a similar explosion in September 2014 that ended up seeing rates re-enter the trend shortly thereafter.  That said, the prelude to this potential explosion has been bigger and more aggressive.  As such, it continues to make sense to guard against the possibility that selling trends continue until/unless we can confirm we're catching a break.  So far, no dice.

Adding uncertainty to the mix is the fact that any early-to-mid-week conclusions can't possibly be confirmed without input from the week's most important data: Friday's big jobs report (aka Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP).  Fresh in many market watchers' minds is what we might call a "head-fake reversal" in May 2013.  Long story short, it looked like one thing was happening at the beginning of 2013, then April provided a massive head-fake in the other direction, ultimately setting up for a sucker punch in May when everything came crashing back in the year's original direction.  (Of course, if that happened in 2015, the implication would be that rates would come crashing back DOWN since that's what they've been doing for most of 2015.

From a technical standpoint, any gains in bonds will quickly suggest that we're in a massive consolidating trend heading into June's ostensibly important FOMC Meeting.  In fact, if we draw trendlines along the recent highs and lows, they intersect perfectly on that June meeting.  Perhaps even more interesting is the fact that a linear regression for 2015 10yr yields is currently pointing precisely to that same intersection (that's a line that has an equal number of values above and below it, so it's basically the average trend for 2015 so far).

Doing their best to shake things up before Friday's Jobs report, there are several Fed speakers out over the first three days of the week.  Yellen is in the mix on Wednesday, just one hour after the ADP data.  As such, we should watch for a shift in volatility and momentum at the point as markets will have most of the week's relevant data and can then begin their final approach to NFP.