Ever have one of those days where it seems that the odds are hopelessly stacked against you? That's the sort of week and a half that bond markets have been having. If it's not European bond markets pushing Treasuries unavoidably higher, it's reasonably strong domestic data like this morning's ISM Services numbers. If it's not the data, it's a massive dose of corporate debt issuance like today's $16.7 bln offering from Abbvie, which garnered more than $65bln in bids (showing how interested market participants are in getting away from Treasuries and other bonds if something else has a better yield).
All that having been said, today wasn't doomed from the start. A pause in European bond weakness afforded some hope earlier in the session. Treasuries actually made it into the morning hours in slightly stronger territory. MBS were also a few ticks into the green before stocks opened. There was a small short-covering rally after the weaker Trade Deficit data, but 10yr yields bounced firmly at the morning's previous floor of 2.117. From there on out, bonds were weaker heading into the ISM data. Once that came out stronger than expected, it was game over and we were quickly treated to new high yields and widespread negative reprices from mortgage lenders.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-30 : -0-08 | FNMA 3.5 104-05 : -0-05 | FNMA 4.0 106-19 : -0-01 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.6270 : +0.0240 | 10 YR 2.1871 : +0.0411 | 30 YR 2.9200 : +0.0420 |
Pricing as of 5/5/15 1:22PMEST |