Yesterday's morning commentary contained a chart and discussion on Treasury yields breaking above the upper bollinger band for 5 consecutive days.  Yesterday went on to extend that streak to 6 days.  At this point, things are getting extremely interesting due to how uncommon this sort of streak is.  In the last 20 years (and it could be longer, but I stopped looking once I got to the 1994 selling spree), there have only been a few examples of 6-day sell-offs that break above the upper Bollinger band, and only ONE example that made it to 7 days (December 7-15th for what it's worth).

What's the point?  The point is the excitement is guaranteed!  We're either going to see the first bounce of this sell-off arrive a day before or on the day of a big NFP release OR we're going to see an unprecedented 8th day with a break above the Bollinger band.  In either case, bonds will catch a break very soon.  It continues to be the case that we'll be able to learn a lot about the underlying motivations for the recent sell-off (and gather clues about future prospects) by how they behave during that bounce.

There is no significant data today to drive trading activity, so the factors that have been in control will remain in control (Germany, corporate debt issuance, and tradeflow considerations).  Granted, Jobless Claims is out at 8:30am, but it's no longer much of a market mover (the last one that looked like it might have been was instead carried by the Employment Cost Index).  In other words, there's nothing else around to confuse market participants as to where the movement is coming from.