If bond markets are going to make something happen with their recent attempts to establish support at the weakest levels of 2015, it would be nice if they'd do that sooner than later.  If they don't, we'll be facing down some major, long-term technical levels very soon.  Realistically, we've already begun prodding them.  While we haven't broken through yet, at these levels, we're only ever one bad day away.  The levels alluded to are represented by 2.35 in the chart below, but historically, the technical activity around that line has happened anywhere from 2.33 and 2.38.

Let's continue talking about the long term--not because it should affect anyone's lock float strategy, but simply because it's a hot topic.  Naturally, everyone wants to know if rates will keep going higher.  No one knows this.  Some are convinced they will, others are convinced they won't.  Whoever ends up being right will be glad to revisit their bold calls as evidence of their clairvoyance.

Most of those bold calls are unsurprisingly in line with recent momentum.  This is normal for talking heads in financial markets.  When there's a strong move higher in rates, suddenly everyone "told you so!"  Even a Bloomberg headline last night said "For anyone concerned at bond rout, don't say you weren't warned."  Ha!  (Laugh we me...)  Ha!

Yes... were these the same sorts of warnings that were so freely made at the end of 2013?  And how'd that turn out for ya?  The point is that it's EASY to say "I told you so" and flat-out IMPOSSIBLE to say "I know exactly what will happen." 

What IS possible is to get a pretty solid idea of how much more of a risk something is now vs at other times.  I will say that the doomsday crowd has a leg to stand on in that regard, and it should come as no surprise if you've been following along.  This move is the biggest, scariest move of the entire EU QE-based rally era (Spring 2014-present).  We could even go so far as to say it's a legitimate risk to the 30yr bull market in bonds. 

Perhaps even scarier is that even if the long term bull market continues, this could easily be a bounce within that trend and still have plenty of room left to run.  Trends in Germany's 10yr debt illustrate this well.  In this chart, yields could move all the way back up to the upper white line and still be exceptionally bullish long term.

Will any of this be decided today?  Probably not.  But there again, the mid 2.3's form a defensive zone that we'd like to hold.  Breaking through would be one more step toward these less pleasant considerations.