In recent weeks, we've increasingly discussed the concept of "supply."  This has largely been driven by the ramp up in corporate debt issuance creating excess supply in fixed income markets, resulting in upward pressure on rates.  Then, of course, there's the regular old Treasury supply that we see in the form of auctions every other week.  This week played host to the more important of the two cycles: 3yr, 10yr, and 30yr maturities.

These aren't necessarily more important because 10's are the most widely traded global interest rate benchmark, but rather because the 3 auctions are heavily weighted toward the longer end of the yield curve.  One big issue recently is that the corporate debt issuance has also been skewed toward longer maturities--longer than normal anyway.

The takeaway is that traders and companies alike are giving us clues that they are concerned about a long term shift in interest rates.  Those are the times when the longer end of the yield curve sees the least love. 

It was no surprise then, that today's 30yr auction was the weakest of the bunch.  Fortunately for us, it was also the last of the bunch.  Further adding to the sense of relief is the fact that markets worked through the biggest corporate debt deals yesterday, leaving a lighter outlook for the rest of the week.  Long story short, supply pressures eased up a bit today.  It didn't hurt that Germany was out of the office as Europe has been driving much of the recent weakness as well.  But despite all this, it's still far too soon to label this as anything other than a correction in the bigger picture. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-21 : +0-12
FNMA 3.5
104-01 : +0-11
FNMA 4.0
106-17 : +0-06
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5440 : -0.0360
10 YR
2.2410 : -0.0530
30 YR
3.0640 : -0.0210
Pricing as of 5/14/15 4:04PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:28PM  :  Still Digesting 30yr Auction. Risk Waxed, but Now Waning
1:15PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Still Digesting 30yr Auction; Some Caution Warranted
12:58PM  :  30yr Auction Preview
9:53AM  :  Eerily Calm and Positive This Morning. A Few Potential Reasons for That...

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "lol VB, we just said exactly the same thing, but you said it in English"
Matthew Graham  :  "I see the yield miss as a reflection of the lack of concession."
Victor Burek  :  "yields did fall going into it"
Matthew Graham  :  "Not too bad. "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE 38.04 PCT OF U.S. 30-YEAR BONDS SALE, DIRECT 11.14 PCT AND INDIRECT 50.82 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "not good"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. 30-YEAR BOND BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.20, NON-COMP BIDS $13.92 MLN"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. SELLS $16 BLN 30-YEAR BONDS AT HIGH YIELD 3.044 PCT, AWARDS 65.15 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH"
Ben Biscoe  :  "i am allergic to ADUs, much like 203ks"
Chris Kopec  :  "Very good post this morning in The Day Ahead....thanks."
Thomas Nelson  :  "If these items weren't in the offer, would they be needed?"
Thomas Nelson  :  "The subject lawn and landscaping is not included in the purchase price. Unfinished area that are included in the purchase price include; concrete driveway and sidewalk, culvert retaining wall and carpeting in the living room and bedrooms. Estimated cost to cure is $7,000. Upon completion, the subject property will meet minimum property requirements within HUD Handbooks 4150.2 & 4905.1."