Hi, Welcome to the show.  Are you ready to play Find That Market Mover? 

It's America's favorite game (or at least it's my favorite idea for a topic at the moment, but I'm going somewhere with this, I promise).  The rules are simple.  I will show you a chart of 10yr yields over the past few weeks and you will identify the two biggest traditional market movers: FOMC and NFP.  Of course there will be bonus points if you can identify any other significant development.

Oh, who are we kidding?    This is a game with no winners.  It's a crappy, sham of a game, and I'm sorry I built it up to be something it wasn't.

It was destined to be impossible to win because the normal rules and past precedents among attention-worthy events no longer apply.  Up is down, down is up.  Smart people are confused, and confused people are feeling smart for a change.  Here's the chart anyway with annotated answers. 

Believe it or not, there is a lot of great information here, and it goes hand in hand with a discussion that we've been having and will continue to have in the coming days.  To keep things short, here are the vital details:

1. by the beginning of this chart, bonds already had their biggest, EU-inspired sell-off.

2. NFP didn't matter.  The dip on May 8th was the 'fizzling out' of the correction from the first big sell-off that ended on May 7th. 

3. The post-NFP dip provided an entry point for sellers looking to cash in on some of 2014-2015's best trades (short Euro, Long Bonds).  More importantly, it made any big company thinking about issuing debt get off the fence super quick.

4.  This first "Monday," is an epic dash of positioning for an epic glut of Corporate debt issuance.  The next Monday is an echo of the same phenomenon.  Housing Starts only got the movement it got because it was used as a "hide-behind" for that selling focus, and quite literally, nothing else mattered, not even FOMC.

Again, we'll talk about this more in the coming days, but the important point to this seemingly insane little spiel is that May just set a record among Mays for corporate bond issuance, and it will be close to an all-time record for any month by the time it's over.  For such a thing to occur while Europe is also having it's first major correction from a 16-month barn-burner, well...  that's going to make for a wild ride.  If anything, we should be surprised and thankful it hasn't been wilder.

There is a bit of econ data about.  We'll discuss it on MBS Live throughout the day.