NFP day is great.  Nothing causes more widespread speculation on how a certain piece of economic data will report and how markets might react.  Sometimes I feel like I have a clue about that, but today is not one of those days.   

One of the biggest wrenches in the works is Europe.  We know Europe accounts for a good deal of domestic market movement these days, but it's hard to say how much.  It varies over time as well.  For instance, just over a year ago, European developments completely trumped NFP.  Domestic markets still reacted to NFP in a big way at first, but by the end of the day, the weakness brought on by NFP had been erased courtesy of positivity brought on by the European QE draft.

By now, the novelty has worn off.  More recently Treasuries have been a recalcitrant dog to Europe's unyielding master.  In other words, it's taken big, determined moves in European bond markets to make Treasuries move in a meaningful way.   Maybe there's some natural level of support here in the 2.2-2.4 area that Treasuries are really hoping to hold while Europe continues to tug at the leash.

The tacit implication is that if European yields are rallying, it would be a big help today.  I don't think it would be as much a help as an extra week payrolls print, but maybe something.  Whatever the case, we really need to see a move back below 2.29 to feel like we still have a dog in the fight (or to feel like there's any fight left in the dog). 

Not pictured in the chart above, but something to keep in mind, The highest weekly closing level for Treasuries in 2015 is 2.24.  Getting back there would be a strong technical statement.

In terms of negative eventualities, the sky really is the limit (as I pointed out yesterday).  We're not going to hit that 2.70 line today, but if we break firmly over 2.38, don't be surprised if this ends up being one of those days where no one seems to have had any idea that we might sell off so much.

On a final note, here's an interesting chart.  It's the first print for ADP and BLS private payrolls.  ADP has been the more reliable series in almost every imaginable way recently, and it might offer some hope.  Notice how it's leveling off around 200k, and how the last 5 out of 6 BLS readings have been higher.  Maybe BLS "owes" ADP a bit of weakness.   Actually, maybe a better takeaway is that BLS numbers can really come in just about anywhere they want.  All you can do is wait and react (unless you have overnight price protection).