This isn't the most enjoyable way to begin the new week, but it was one of the options suggested by recent trends. Specifically, this option was the one where last Thursday and Friday marked a mere correction in a more determined trend toward higher rates (as opposed to the first two days of a friendly bounce toward lower rates).
US traders were clearly lined up to sell bonds at the domestic open and were already in weaker territory from overnight trading. The determination behind the selling is quite high considering the lack of overt causes. Indeed, if there were no causes, the losses would be exceptionally troubling.
But there are causes. They're just not as satisfying as we'd like them to be in terms of causality. Additionally, they are the same two causes that have been behind most of the recent weakness: Europe and corporate debt issuance.
The European component has been and continues to be the biggest. In terms of specific headlines, the fact that Greece announced a €750 million payment to the IMF isn't helping, but even without that, markets are in the process of pricing in a long term bounce in Europe. Whether that's premature or not remains to be seen, but it hurts for now.
All ancillary factors are merely exacerbating that central source of pain. The most consistent runner-up has been corporate debt issuance. This not only creates supply pressure in the bond market, but also can create direct selling of Treasuries as part of the issuing firms' rate-lock process.
The bottom line is that the recent sell-off in bond markets is ongoing. Thursday and Friday marked a brief correction and we're right back to tracking the negative trend, still very much waiting for some more legitimate evidence that it might be shifting.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-32 : -0-15 | FNMA 3.5 104-09 : -0-11 | FNMA 4.0 106-20 : -0-06 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.6040 : +0.0320 | 10 YR 2.2290 : +0.0866 | 30 YR 2.9820 : +0.0863 |
Pricing as of 5/11/15 1:38PMEST |