Market participants and pundits alike knew that the Fed wouldn't hike rates at the April meeting. Even then, that meeting served as the starting point for the bond market route at home and abroad. Whether that's coincidence or causality is impossible to definitively say, but it's an interesting consideration nonetheless.
Even if we make the case that the late April blast-off in European debt (which we subsequently blame for the blast-off in domestic debt) wasn't related to the Fed, today's Fed events STILL matter. Even if Europe continues to dictate broader momentum, today's Fed STILL matters.
This is the last "press conference" Fed day before September, and September is when they're expected to hike. That puts an awful lot of emphasis on Yellen and on the forecasts to act as tea leaves confirming the September outlook. Markets want this (the clarity, not the hike), but Yellen might not give it. If she DOES end up providing clarity in either direction, or if the forecasts provide a clear sense of the committee's leaning, rates will be moving.
Bottom line: even though some Fed days end up not causing too much of a stir, they always CAN cause a stir--sometimes a big one.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 99-22 : +0-00 | FNMA 3.5 103-02 : +0-00 | FNMA 4.0 105-30 : +0-00 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.7060 : +0.0120 | 10 YR 2.3220 : +0.0130 | 30 YR 3.0540 : +0.0130 |
Pricing as of 6/17/15 7:30AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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