By the time you read this, things may already have gotten serious.  The ECB announcement is at 7:45am Eastern, and although global markets are highly anxious about what they might say, they tend to say the important stuff via Draghi at the 8:30am press conference.  In general, we're all trying to get a feel for how committed they really are to a September 2016 completion time for asset purchases.  Speculation regarding early tapering was partly to blame for April's European bond market rout.

With Draghi up at 830am, the first major headline of the domestic session will be the ADP employment data.  Expect any major beat or miss to be traded accordingly (i.e. 300k kills us and 100k makes for a big rally).  From there, the focus will be on Draghi's Q&A, followed closely by the 10am ISM data.

Make no mistake.  Things could get very serious, very quickly at any point over the next three days.  It's so potentially serious that I used the phrase "make no mistake," which is a phrase that I hate, and that I generally make fun of other people for using. 

Why this?  Why now?

I could be wrong, or it just might not be time yet, but we're getting very close to a time where the big picture momentum will have to decide which side of this epic fence to come down on.  2.15-2.30 10yr yields hasn't been a place where we just "hang out" indefinitely without getting a big move on either side. 

We get there in a big way.  We leave in a big way.  And we've done it in both directions.  Fundamentally, it's hard to see why this one should head toward higher rates, but that still feels like the bigger risk based on how things have been moving.  All that to say: be careful.  Maybe this blows over, but if it doesn't, things could get much worse.