With bond markets unable to break back into May's trading range last week and  now unable to break into last week's range this week, things aren't looking too bright.  Although they COULD certainly look much worse, they've only actually BEEN any worse on 2 other days so far this year (in terms of closing levels on 6/9 and 6/10 versus yesterday's closing marks). 

It is interesting, then, that Thursday certainly lacked the panic and urgency that characterized early June, but that's how they get you!  Slow and sneaky!

10yr yields are once again facing the higher end of their recent yield range at 2.42 and they've traded up to or beyond that level every day for the past 3 days (yesterday was technically 2.416).  What does this mean?  Nothing specifically, but in a general sense, it simply speaks to the state of the game in 2015.  At this point in the year, we can say the following about 2015:

- rates mostly rising

- fastest pace of rising rates since 2013

- no meaningful recovery or even any concerted efforts to push back much against extremely convicted moves higher

- failure to revisit 2012 lows means it's currently acting as the first confirmation that the 30yr bond rally is over

To be clear, the 30yr bond rally (that's "3 decades," not the 30yr bond) might not be over.  It's just that 2015 has sorta suggested the opposite so far.  At the very least it hasn't done anything to refute that risk.

There's nothing major on the calendar today, with the only data release being Consumer Sentiment.  European officials have already said that "this weekend" will be crucial for Greece.  Who knows what that really means... It's easier to guess what European officials DON'T mean, and those sorts of comments certainly don't mean that we'll see a surprise Greek deal happen today.  As such, bond market fates are cast upon the wind like so many dandelion wishes.  The focus is definitely shifting to next week and prospects for volatility are rapidly increasing.