Bond markets came into the domestic session in markedly weaker territory, but not for any overt reason.  Yields merely drifted defensively higher ahead of jobs data--a fairly understandable move considering that a strong number stood a good chance to do some serious damage. 

Not only did the headline miss expectations  (223k vs 230k forecast), but the past 2 reports combined for 60k fewer jobs after revisions.  Perhaps an equal amount of bond market strength drew on the fact that wages were flat, despite forecasts for a 0.2 percent gain.  Last month's wage growth was also revised lower by 0.1 percent. 

Taken together, it was enough of an adjustment to the recent trend (in employment data) that traders actually adjusted their outlook on the Fed's rate hike timeline (via Fed Funds Futures trading at the CME).  While many still view September as the likely month for a first hike, the consensus shifted into 2016 this morning. 

Treasuries and MBS reacted favorably as well with 10's dropping from 2.47 to 2.37.  Because of overnight weakness, that's only a 4.5bp gain on the day despite the 10bp move between highs and lows.  Fannie 3.5 MBS are up roughly 3/8ths of a point at 102-24.  After the initial rally ran it's course, bonds have been flat despite more selling in stocks. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-06 : +0-12
FNMA 3.5
102-24 : +0-11
FNMA 4.0
105-25 : +0-10
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6410 : -0.0510
10 YR
2.3820 : -0.0453
30 YR
3.1770 : -0.0300
Pricing as of 7/2/15 11:39AMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:48AM  :  Bond Markets Erase Overnight Losses After Weaker NFP

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Food for thought: Greek yields spiked 600bps yesterday. That's from 10% to 16%, roughly. Their last major high was in the 13% range and US 10yr yields were consistently under 2% at the time. Yesterday we traded a range around 2.40% despite Greek yields suggesting a much bigger rally. Yes, it's creating intraday movement, but how much does it matter to the bigger picture? Not much, I say."
Dave Pressel  :  "revisions trumping the 5.3"
Victor Burek  :  "participation rate, lowest since 1977"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. JUNE U-6 UNDEREMPLOYMENT RATE 10.5 PCT VS MAY 10.8 PCT (PREV 10.8 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JUNE PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS +223,000 (CONS +225,000), VS MAY +250,000 (PREV +262,000)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. JUNE AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ALL PRIVATE WORKERS UNCHANGED (CONS +0.2 PCT) VS MAY +0.2 PCT (PREV +0.3 PCT) TO $24.95 VS MAY $24.95; MAY YEAR-ON-YEAR EARNINGS +2.0 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. JUNE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE 62.6 PCT VS MAY 62.9 PCT (PREV 62.9 PCT)"
Victor Burek  :  "earnings!!!!"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. JUNE JOBLESS RATE 5.3 PCT (CONSENSUS 5.4 PCT) VS MAY 5.5 PCT (PREV 5.5 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. JUNE NONFARM PAYROLLS +223,000 (CONSENSUS +230,000) VS MAY +254,000 (PREV +280,000), APRIL +187,000 (PREV +221,000)"
Andy Pada, Jr.  :  "fannie and freddie making charging for "riskier" loans but if that "risky" loan defaults, they don't say "well, we priced it as a risker loan, we should eat the loss." No, they simply make the lender buy the loan back."