Domestic bond markets have taken part in a choppy, volatile, but reasonably strong move away from risk every day so far in July.  That means rates have been falling.  Moving "away from risk" speaks to the fact that stock prices and commodities have also been falling.  Prices have also been falling in riskier bonds (like Greece's, for example), meaning investors have demanded ever-higher yields in order to hold Greek debt.  Perhaps just as notable has been the recent drop in Asian equities prices.

But both bounced higher today, and it's quickly given pause to the safe-haven rally in markets like US Treasuries and MBS.  The fact that markets are tuned in to the Greek debt negotiation process is undeniable.  The last time Greek yields ebbed in any noticeable way was on July 1st and 2nd, which lined up perfectly with the last move higher in US interest rates. 

There is still much to come with respect to a "deal" for Greece.  We may get a few meaningful headlines over the next 48 hours, but the biggest news is expected over the weekend.  At stake for US interest rates is the risk of failing at yesterday's attempt to break June's range boundary.  That's the teal line in the chart below.  MBS, for their part, are faring a bit better than Treasuries into today's selling, but only because they've fared noticeably worse during the rally.

2015-7-9 rejection


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-30 : -0-15
FNMA 3.5
103-09 : -0-12
FNMA 4.0
106-02 : -0-08
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5810 : +0.0320
10 YR
2.2780 : +0.0800
30 YR
3.0670 : +0.0880
Pricing as of 7/9/15 12:33PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:21AM  :  Global Risk Aversion Waning; Corp Issuance Waxing; Bonds Suffer

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - IMF LOWERS 2015 GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST TO 3.3 PCT, 0.2 PERCENTAGE POINT LOWER THAN IN APRIL"
Daniel Kramer  :  "So higher jobless claims does nothing either "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG ROSE TO 279,500 JULY 4 WEEK FROM 275,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 274,750)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 297,000 JULY 4 WEEK (CONSENSUS 275,000) FROM 282,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 281,000)"
Daniel Kramer  :  "and i am sure rates will come out today and take back more than they gave in last two days too"
Daniel Kramer  :  "so it is as if china's problems just never existed after one rebound night?"