When is the be-all end-all Greek bailout negotiation weekend not the be-all end-all Greek bailout negotiation?  When it ends with both sides going back to vote on agreements that are, by no means guaranteed to pass.

This weekend was supposed to have been "the big one" for Greece's Eurozone membership.  Greece went to the table with the blessing of its people to bargain for a better bailout.  They're returning from that table with something far worse than they expected.  Ironically (or tragically), the new terms are worse than those the Greek people voted against in last weekend's referendum. 

The more we talk about it from here, the more complicated it will get, and that complexity is a big reason for the indecisive response in bond markets.  The first move was clearly negative for bonds as the superficial headlines simply suggested a new bailout deal was reached.  But ever since the initial pop into weaker territory, bonds have been rallying.

In fact, German Bunds, which tend to fall in yield with bad news for Greece, made it all the way back into positive territory this morning.  The only reason US Treasuries haven't followed is that a big corporate deal ($15 bln) was announced this morning.  Still, US bond markets are still much better off than they were.  Additionally, the fact that opening levels were so poor means that lenders have been repricing positively.