Bond markets pulled back overnight on a combination of global stock market stability and European data.  Selling pressure remained this morning as corporate debt issuance is active.  (That means that firms that were planning on issuing new debt saw this pull back in rates as good opportunity to pull the trigger.)  Even after a much weaker than expected Consumer Confidence number, bond markets haven't made any meaningful steps back toward positive territory.

All that having been said, there are several silver linings to this cloud.

First of all, a pull-back of some magnitude was to be expected simply because that's what tends to happen after any traded security moves in the same direction for long enough.  The size of the pull-back is non-threatening at the moment, with 10yr yields only up 3.4bps on the day.  Additionally, we're seeing reasonably strong signs of technical support at 2.266.  If nothing else, this gives us a great line in the sand to watch for additional weakness.  As long as we're holding under that, the pull-back would be a welcome ingredient of the broader move toward lower rates.

Finally, MBS are outperforming.  Consider this 'payback' for the recent examples of MBS not gaining as much as Treasuries over the past few weeks.  Fannie 3.5s are only off 3/32nds in price at mid-day.  10yr Treasuries, by comparison, are down 9/32nds.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-06 : -0-03
FNMA 3.5
103-14 : -0-03
FNMA 4.0
106-04 : -0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6660 : +0.0120
10 YR
2.2480 : +0.0320
30 YR
2.9670 : +0.0390
Pricing as of 7/28/15 11:23AMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:58AM  :  Pull Back is Here; Assessing Size and Momentum

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Nothing that satisfies my curiosity. For instance: "A less optimistic outlook for the labor market, and perhaps the uncertainty and volatility in financial markets prompted by the situation in Greece and China, appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence.""
Andrew Horowitz  :  "MG they giving any reason for the rather large pullback in confidence?"
Jon Bodan  :  "Hey all, found this list of states for the LD/TRID related to liability after foreclosure. http://mndne.ws/1OyJiPJ"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 90.9 (CONSENSUS 100.0) VS JUNE REVISED 99.8 (PREVIOUS 101.4) - CONFERENCE BOARD"
Ira Selwin  :  "Fannie is definitely vague on that topic. They basically tell you to check one section thats links back to another."
Sung Kim  :  "anyone know if there is a cash flow form that is used to determine the impact of using biz funds>"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MAY 20-METRO AREA HOME PRICES NON-ADJUSTED +1.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.3) VS +1.1 PCT IN APRIL-S&P/CASE-SHILLER"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MAY HOME PRICES IN 20 METRO AREAS -0.2 PCT SEASONALLY ADJ (CONSENSUS +0.3) VS REVISED 0.0 IN APRIL - S&P/CASE-SHILLER"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US MAY 20-METRO AREA HOME PRICES +4.9 PCT FROM YEAR AGO (CONSENSUS +5.6 PCT) VS +4.9 PCT IN APRIL-- CASE-SHILLER"