The Wednesday before NFP always has at least the ADP numbers to provide volatility potential.  It also frequently has ISM Services data as was the case yesterday.  But the Thursday before NFP is more hit and miss.

It used to be the case that the ECB would meet every month on the first Thursday of the month.  This often afforded an additional layer of excitement and/or volatility to the last 3 days of NFP weeks.  The ECB is on a different schedule these days and we won't hear from them today.

That leaves us only with Jobless Claims data in terms of potentially relevant economic reports.  And let's be realistic.  It's very hard to make a case for Jobless Claims accounting for much market movement in recent months.  That might seem odd, considering markets always care so much about something that seems so similar (Payrolls, Unemployment, etc.), but apart from the data being quite different in structure, the only thing that really matters is what the market reacts to.

While Claims can always cause some token amount of Thursday morning movement, technicals and tradeflows are the more likely source of guidance during the domestic session.  Yesterday was light in terms of corporate debt issuance, making it more of a risk for today (negative implication), but tradeflows suggested sellers would need to find new motivation to sell any more than they did yesterday (positive to neutral implication). 

The sense of neutrality is reinforced by our current place amid recent trends.  If we look at May's range and June's higher, nastier range, there's one dividing line between the two where yields have been far more likely to bounce.  Incidentally, that's right about where we bounced and leveled-off yesterday, and it's also equidistant from the most frequently visited technical boundaries of the two previous ranges.

In human English now: we're hovering around 2.28.  It's 14bps to May's most solid floor and 14bps to June's most solid ceiling.  It seems like bonds are doing that thing they do where they're staying nimble and flexible for a move in either direction.

For those who read below the charts in the morning, here's a bonus thought.  When I look at the chart above, it looks more good than bad.  I don't say that because of July's rally, but rather due to June's ceiling-like support.  Even if NFP is bad for us, we could still have a chance to hold that ground again.  And if that happened, it would naturally be yet another firm show of support.  I'm only willing to say "chance" though, because this is potentially a pretty big NFP.  If it's super strong, it will go a long way toward advancing rate hike expectations.  It would stir the pot even more if it was super weak.