In financial markets, a flight-to-safety generally refers to investors moving out of riskier assets (like stocks, and certain commodities) and into safer havens (like Treasuries and other virtually risk-free bonds). The past 4 days have seen a sharp increase in risk aversion on top of a similar move that was already in progress for the past several weeks.
Today has seen the sun set on that move. In fact the sun began to set as early as yesterday morning, and the sky has simply continued to darken as global stock markets bounce back. Quick point of order: if you see headlines about Chinese stock markets falling today, they will be in reference to the Shanghai composite, which closes earlier and is limited in terms of investor participation. The Hang Seng is much improved on the day, as are most equities indices around the world.
The price for the stock market gains is being paid by bond markets. 10yr yields are now up nearly 9bps and have yet to show signs of leveling-off for the day. Domestic economic data didn't have much of an effect, but to whatever extent investors care, it too was a negative indicator for bonds. Consumer Confidence soared to 101.5 vs a 93.4 forecast. The only silver lining is the fact that MBS continue to lag the volatile moves in Treasuries. Yesterday, that was frustrating (MBS didn't gain as nicely), but it's welcome change today (MBS aren't losing as much ground). Fannie 3.5's are down nearly a quarter point, but still at 104-00. Yesterday notwithstanding, that's the highest since late May.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-30 : -0-11 | FNMA 3.5 104-00 : -0-07 | FNMA 4.0 106-15 : -0-03 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.6210 : +0.0410 | 10 YR 2.0990 : +0.0870 | 30 YR 2.8330 : +0.1000 |
Pricing as of 8/25/15 11:45AMEST |