Let's consider some facts.  Not only did most of August see rates converging on the same micro range as yesterday (discussed in Day Ahead), but there are even longer-term converging on the same area (chart follows).  Add to that the fact that equities markets are in the throes of their first significant correction since 2011, oil remaining near post-crisis lows, European QE, Chinese growth uncertainty, an absence of inflation, a potential Fed rate hike, a current week of data that should directly inform those rate hikes and you have the makings for a fairly epic storm. 

Today brings the first real data of the week in terms of the stuff that stands the best chance to truly impact September's Fed rate hike prospects.  ADP Employment certainly isn't the dominant market mover this week, but on the occasions where it falls far from consensus, it's taken as a warning sign for an equally significant move in Friday's NFP. 

There is also a bit more focus on ADP today as the usual Wednesday release of ISM Non-Manufacturing will instead be tomorrow (not to be confused with the 9:45am ISM New York, which is of little consequence).  The median forecast for ADP is 201k payrolls vs 185k previously.

On a final note, given the current importance of oil prices for bond markets, we could also keep an eye out for any major swings in oil after the 10:30am Inventory figures.