There have been some pretty decent swings in prices/yields this morning if we're basing our notions of volatility on more recent ranges.  For instance, if we look at a standard 2-day chart, bonds moved out to the weakest levels in 2 days after this morning's CPI and subsequently rallied past the best levels in 2 days.  If we zoom out just a bit though, we're still in the same old range.

2015-8-19 dash

For those who really want to assign causality, we are probably safe to conclude that the initial weakness was a factor of CPI not being weak enough to unequivocally deter the Fed's rate hike rhetoric.  The rest of the morning has been driven by trading positions and the broader "risk-off" trade. 

The second push of weakness in bonds at 9am flushed out remaining potential sellers.  Bonds were flat for a while, and then oil began plummeting after the 10:30am inventory data.  Everything "risk-related" got pulled lower after that (stocks, oil prices, bond yields), and we're back in the green as a result.  Whether you want to view that as a simple range-trade correction or a legitimate trade on new fundamental data is up to you.  One point of view is for cynics--the other for believers.  Neither is wrong. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-12 : +0-03
FNMA 3.5
103-17 : +0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-04 : +0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7020 : -0.0200
10 YR
2.1630 : -0.0300
30 YR
2.8230 : -0.0330
Pricing as of 8/19/15 12:58PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:42AM  :  CPI Apparently Not Weak Enough to Deter Rate Hike

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Sung Kim  :  "Flagstar and Provident will def RP"
Matthew Graham  :  "Equities getting crushed, perhaps led by oil, or concurrent with oil."
Jeremy Bittner  :  "great for us!!! need some reprices for the better!"
Sung Kim  :  "green means we are not getting crushed"
Jeremy Bittner  :  "why is the 10 year getting crushed? CPI reports?"
Sung Kim  :  "germany DAX blowing through some key support levels i believe, euro equities not looking pretty"
Matthew Graham  :  "Afternoon move in Europe as well."
Sung Kim  :  "oil in a free fall again"
Jon Leslie  :  "what caused us to go green again "
Matthew Graham  :  "MC, agreed. I'm not sure if it means the Fed can't raise rates, but certainly there's been a lot of apprehension about the timing of economic cycles. In fact, I think I said that just a few days ago. The guy on squawk must be an MG reader. http://mndne.ws/1IKgQGW"
Matt Hodges  :  "doesn't surprise me, with September launch potential"
Matthew Graham  :  "Yeah MH, or at least I can see I'm not seeing anything overt behind the scenes"
Matthew Carver  :  "heard a good point this morning on squawk, average time between recessions is 6.5 yrs, FED waiting too long, been over 4 yrs - too late to raise rate now"
Matt Hodges  :  "pre-2pm positioning, MG?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. TIPS INFLATION BREAKEVEN RATES' FALL ACCELERATES AFTER JULY U.S. CPI DATA, 10-YEAR BREAKEVEN RATE TOUCHES 7-MONTH LOWS-TRADEWEB"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. JULY CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR +0.2 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT), EXFOOD/ENERGY +1.8 PCT (CONS +1.8 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. JULY CPI +0.1 PCT (+0.1316; CONSENSUS +0.2 PCT), EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.1 PCT (+0.1321; CONS +0.2 PCT)"