Bonds continue following the broader global correction leading back from the stock market weakness at the end of September.  This has been a classic "risk-on" move where stock prices and bond yields are rising together.  It has also been a classic consolidation in the sense that each day's trading range has been increasingly narrow this week.

These types of consolidations are typically seen leading up to some important event--some piece of data or news that will provide guidance on the direction of the next trend.  This is especially true when both stocks and bonds are consolidating together as they are now.

In scouring the landscape for events with that sort of street-cred, there's really only one possibility for the entire week--today's release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm.  Bond markets have weakened steadily leading up to the Minutes.  Even the decent 30yr bond auction didn't make for any bounce back in a friendlier direction.  With the net change in 10yr yields being only about 2bps, it's nothing to write home about just yet.  Fannie 3.0s are down 5/32nds and there is ongoing negative reprice risk due to the timing of the losses.

On a final note, simply because we think we're seeing a set-up for a big-ticket event, it doesn't mean that the results will match.  It's all about "potential energy."


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-13 : -0-05
FNMA 3.5
104-12 : -0-03
FNMA 4.0
106-22 : -0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6450 : +0.0160
10 YR
2.0830 : +0.0180
30 YR
2.9040 : +0.0110
Pricing as of 10/8/15 1:10PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:09PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Another Incremental Increase in Negative Reprice Risk
10:11AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Lagarde 180 Puts us on Edge of Reprice Risk

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "no, claims tend to follow U/E more than NFP"
Sung Kim  :  "obviously trending down, but that doesnt mesh with NFP"
Matthew Graham  :  "I don't think it's too coincidental. Not necessarily the ONE cause, but without being an expert in labor economics, I would guess it's almost certainly contributing."
Sung Kim  :  "coincidental that labor particpation rate is also at lows?"
Sung Kim  :  "42 year low in jobless claims?"
Andrew Benson  :  "MH: Ours is running, but it is generating bad values. For example, the box on page for Projected Payments -- totals don't add up to the breakdowns when the loan has MI or MIP."
Matt Hodges  :  "how so? i'm on calyx and our IT has gotten us up and running"
Andrew Benson  :  "Calyx has significant issues -- very disappointing."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 263,000 OCT 3 WEEK (CONSENSUS 274,000) FROM 276,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 277,000)"
Matt Hodges  :  "we were smooth as of Monday afternoon, when i kicked out two doc packages, both smooth"
Matt Hodges  :  "the LE has more to do with your vendor's preparation and their patches, then your company's customization. If that all worked, you are good"
JOSEPH BUXTON  :  "I'm about 10 disclosure sets in with the new LE, hasn't been difficult thus far. Obviously the CD is the more difficult piece but so far so good in the TRaiD world"