Even a slew of corporate bond issuance isn't holding back bond markets from another strong move lower in yield today. In fact, in a break from the recent norm, we've seen bond yields MORE willing to move lower than stock prices. 2 weeks ago heading into the NFP rally, the opposite was true as bonds were seemingly being dragged lower in yield against their will.
There will always be more than one factor in play at any given time, but the recent rally has been as much about stocks as anything. If investors don't have their heads in the sand, there's a good chance they're wondering where exactly the next wave of stock market gains will come from--the kind that had previously been delivered by various rounds of QE either at home or abroad.
From there, if stock gains are looking like they've reached the end of an era, bonds get pretty excited. We've talked a lot about how the current stock weakness has already made a more forceful case than its only real precedent in 2011. Now this week we see stocks continue to struggle with the top of that "do or die" range. This refers to the narrow range that follows a sell-off, that ultimately leads to a break higher and the resumption of the long-term rally. Bottom line, no break higher yet, and the longer that continues to be the case, the more bond markets know they're gonna win.
Of course it's not as as simple as bonds winning and stocks losing, but there are tradeflow considerations as money managers allocate assets out of stocks and into "whatever else." Bonds are increasingly fitting the "whatever else" bill as the global economy increasingly makes a Fed rate hike seem less scary/immediate.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 101-24 : +0-13 | FNMA 3.5 104-19 : +0-10 | FNMA 4.0 106-24 : +0-06 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.5570 : -0.0600 | 10 YR 1.9820 : -0.0600 | 30 YR 2.8390 : -0.0420 |
Pricing as of 10/14/15 2:34PMEST |