There continues to be nothing too much to write home about when it comes to post-NFP October in bond markets.  There has been a range of 2.0-2.08 that has remained mostly intact since then--especially in the second half of the month.   After testing the higher end of the range at the end of last week, rates moved quickly to the other end of the range this week, but that's about it.

2015-10-27 consolidation

We wouldn't necessarily expect a massive break of this range before the Fed, but overnight movements in oil and European bond markets might have suggested it under different circumstances.  In other words, if it wasn't Fed day tomorrow, and if the Fed still didn't stand any chance of alluding to a December hike, our performance might be a bit stronger here.

That said, if it wasn't Fed day tomorrow, bond markets might not care so much about oil, considering that's one of the lynch-pins of the Fed's inflation hopes.  If oil is hitting 2 month lows right as the Fed is meeting, that makes it relatively less likely that they'll be eager to allude to future hike plans.  Apparently that's only good enough for 3.3bps of a rally in 10yr yields and a quarter point improvement in Fannie 3.0s.  Could be worse.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-26 : +0-07
FNMA 3.5
104-21 : +0-05
FNMA 4.0
106-27 : +0-04
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6170 : -0.0200
10 YR
2.0210 : -0.0370
30 YR
2.8450 : -0.0230
Pricing as of 10/27/15 2:19PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:55AM  :  European Bond Markets and Oil Lead Rally; US Bonds Reluctantly Follow

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Hugh W. Page  :  "TRID closing Friday meameans you better have CD out AND acknowledged received by borrower. "
Christopher Stevens  :  "I just can't come up with a reason the Fed should raise in Dec other than they 'feel' they have to raise in 2015."
John McClellan  :  "TRID loan closing on Friday? better have your CD out today"
Sung Kim  :  "case shiller will be an interesting number today"
John Tassios  :  "not too much meaningful future GDP growth to be had if CapEx continues this low."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US SEPT NONDEFENSE CAP ORDERS EX-AIRCRAFT -0.3 PCT, (CONS UNCHANGED) VS AUG -1.6 PCT (PREV -0.8 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. SEPT DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION ORDERS -0.4 PCT (CONS UNCHANGED) VS AUG -0.9 PCT (PREV -0.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US SEPT DURABLES ORDERS -1.2 PCT (CONSENSUS -1.2 PCT) VS AUG -3.0 PCT (PREV -2.3 PCT)"
Sung Kim  :  "update on 95% high bal vis a vis MGIC "we already allow them, just waiting to see what investors will allow" i guess that implies MI premiums not changing, so it appears as though my assumptions have been incorrect"