One year ago today, things "got real" for bond markets as they leaped into significantly stronger territory, ultimately ending the day at the best closing levels in more than a year before going on to have an even crazier October 15th (that was the day with the intraday swing from 2.23 to 1.86 that teams of experts are still trying to figure out).

Today wasn't quite on par with last year's October 14th (which also benefited from the shock value of being the Tuesday after a 3-day weekend), but it was no slouch.  10yr yields and MBS closed at their best levels in nearly 6 months as global growth concerns hit home.

The attack came on several fronts.  The obvious issues--and the biggest sources of volume--were the morning economic reports.  Retail Sales missed estimates and only got worse by the time one looked at the internals and revisions.  Producer Price data was a real eyesore for any hike-happy Fed members.  Core PPI fell to +0.8 year-over-year vs a +1.2 forecast.   Month-over-month core PPI fell to a record low -0.3%.  That means that even after we factor out the costs of food and energy, prices still fell at the producer level (things look even worse if you include fuel, of course).

Then there were earnings reports from big banks and Walmart, with the latter doing the most to dogpile on the rally that was already in progress for bond markets.  Volume returned in a big way as trading levels broke through key resistance levels. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-25 : +0-13
FNMA 3.5
104-19 : +0-10
FNMA 4.0
106-24 : +0-06
Treasuries
2 YR
0.5530 : -0.0640
10 YR
1.9750 : -0.0670
30 YR
2.8340 : -0.0470
Pricing as of 10/14/15 7:13PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:03AM  :  Bonds Keenly Aware of Stocks; 10yr Briefly Sub 2%

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S LACKER SAYS 100,000 NEW JOBS A MONTH MORE THAN ENOUGH TO KEEP UP WITH POPULATION"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S LACKER SAYS RETAIL SALES REPORT DOESN'T CHANGE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK MUCH - FOX BUSINESS"
Compliance is Watching Me  :  "I meant that as they want to grow MSA relationships...but good point"
Matt Hodges  :  "closed realty shops become open"
Matt Hodges  :  "it is an opportunity"
Compliance is Watching Me  :  "the crazy thing is some lenders see these exits as an "opportunity""
Compliance is Watching Me  :  "no shocker there. Like SK said, that memo from CFPB sounded more like a warning than guidance"
Compliance is Watching Me  :  "it's a bond loan with a 2nd. They aren't going to touch it."
Jason Harris  :  "we would do that if they issue a lender's policy....i bet they will"
Compliance is Watching Me  :  "this is rich...title report comes in showing the subject property detached garage, fence, and driveway encroach on the adjoining property, and the buyer would have no title insurance covering him in case of a lawsuit (3 exclusions). Agent wants him to buy it anyway. Not to mention we are not going to do the loan anyways."