I made a reference to the methodical nature of the recent bond market weakness in this morning's commentary.  Today's trading has simply marked a continuation of that same theme.  Bond markets know where they're going (approximately), and continue taking measured steps in getting there.

The latest installment sees 10yr yields inching up another few bps to highs of 2.263 today.  It's no coincidence that we're seeing these levels a day before tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls data.  2.26-2.28 is the first important pivot point we discussed after last week's sell-off picked up steam.  When 10's broke through 2.13, I said that 2.27 would be the next level that could serve as a potential entry point for traders looking to reenter the bond market as buyers.

That said, it will take quite some doing for them to actually push rates back down.  NFP would have to be way weaker than it's likely to be, but never say never. 

The point is not to say "this is where bond markets bounce," but rather, this is a logical place for bond markets to level-off in advance of tomorrow's data.  Today's data hasn't really made any difference in that reality.  Jobless Claims were weaker than expected and productivity was significantly stronger than expected, yet there was no discernible reaction to the data.  Momentum from the 8:20am CME open hit a wall when bonds broke even and the sellers have been in control ever since.  That said, the pace has been manageable.  Again, that's what we'd expect from the aforementioned 'methodical' sell-off.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-13 : -0-06
FNMA 3.5
103-19 : -0-04
FNMA 4.0
106-04 : -0-02
Treasuries
2 YR
0.8570 : +0.0410
10 YR
2.2520 : +0.0250
30 YR
3.0210 : +0.0290
Pricing as of 11/5/15 1:01PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:17AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Edging Into Negative Reprice Risk Territory
10:30AM  :  New Lows for MBS. Same Theme, Different Day

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "GD, no way. That's an insignificant slide in an insignificant report. The data merely needs to be something slightly better than awful in order to keep wind in the Fed's sails."
Matthew Graham  :  "DS, net negative for us. Lagging productivity is a feather in the cap of the "no hike" camp."
Gilbert Denizard  :  "so employment figures are a headwind for the feds rate hawks?"
Doug Seder  :  "Does that productivity increase have any meaning for our purposes?"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. Q3 NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY +1.6 PCT (CONSENSUS -0.2 PCT) VS Q2 +3.5 PCT (PREV +3.3 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. Q3 NON-FARM UNIT LABOR COSTS +1.4 PCT (CONSENSUS +2.3 PCT) VS Q2 -1.8 PCT (PREV -1.4 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 276,000 OCT 31 WEEK (CONSENSUS 262,000) FROM 260,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 260,000)"