Last Friday's NFP had immediate implications for financial markets. It meant that there could now be a relatively unanimous agreement on a December rate hike. Markets quickly moved to 'price in' that reality.
Those sorts of sell-offs that occur in the heat of the moment have different characteristics from the general selling pressure that can follow. We're now seeing such pressure.
If the Fed hike is more likely, then the implication is negative for both stocks and bonds. The stock market weakness is a bit of a complicating factor for bonds, because the proceeds from stock sales could end up benefiting bond markets to some extent. By and large, most of the money is turning into cash or functionally equivalent vehicles such as ultra-short term debt.
Another problem for bond markets is corporate debt issuance. Keeping in line with the "winter is coming" mentality, corporations are rushing to issue bonds before rates continue higher and before liquidity begins to decrease in earnest during the holiday season. I'm seeing as manycorporate deals launched over the past 2 business days as I've seen on any 2 business days all year with no fewer than 23 tranches from 11 companies today alone. This creates supply pressure for bond markets in general, and on a week that already suffers from the burden of Treasury supply with 3, 10, and 30yr auctions.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 99-25 : -0-09 | FNMA 3.5 103-03 : -0-07 | FNMA 4.0 105-25 : -0-06 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.8900 : +0.0000 | 10 YR 2.3530 : +0.0278 | 30 YR 3.1190 : +0.0329 |
Pricing as of 11/9/15 1:36PMEST |