If I were to deliver my normal pre-Fed shtick, I would probably point out the fact that the Fed has a tendency to use the Minutes release to promote a balanced takeaway for markets. For example, if the Fed announcement itself clearly erred on one side of the accommodation spectrum, the Minutes usually err on the other side.
Historical exceptions to this search for balance are important. They logically signal a more decisive shift in the Fed's thinking and have resulted in some of the biggest ensuing market movements.
Fortunately, markets aren't in an incredibly vulnerable position when it comes to the risk of getting caught off guard by an extra hawkish Fed. Reason being, they've already heard the Fed's message loud and clear. For those who didn't get the message with October's announcement, Yellen cleared things up a week later. The remaining non-believers were instantly converted after the balmy NFP numbers a few days later.
And so it came to be that bond markets finally began pricing in a Fed rate hike. Not only that, but they haven't wavered since then. 2yr yields are a good proxy for rate hike prospects. They clearly broke new ground after October's Fed meeting and haven't moved much since then.
Bottom line, markets won't be surprised if the Fed comes out in the Minutes today and reiterates what's already been gleaned and traded upon. One small exception could exist for the precious few traders that still haven't gotten the memo, and that would be a situation where the Minutes reference the fact that the Fed wanted to hike in October but held off in order to give markets time to prepare. That's probably not in their wheelhouse though, which limits the damage potential for bond markets today.
MBS |
FNMA 3.0
100-03 : +0-00
|
FNMA 3.5
103-10 : +0-00
|
FNMA 4.0
105-30 : +0-00
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Treasuries |
2 YR
0.8720 : +0.0130
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10 YR
2.2710 : +0.0030
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30 YR
3.0500 : -0.0040
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Pricing as of 11/18/15 7:30AMEST |
Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
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