If illiquidity shows up for the start of the holiday trading season and says "I come bearing gifts!" you do not want those gifts.  They typically consist of negative reprices and blood pressure medication.  The former is due to the quick market movements that illiquidity can create while the latter is due to the frustratingly random nature of the move.

But that's how illiquidity works: fewer buyers and sellers at any given price, regardless of volume.  Look at it this way: if there are 10 traders trading--let's say 5 buyers, 5 sellers-- and 7 of them go home, one side is now outnumbered 2 to 1.  If there were twice as many traders to begin with and the same proportion went home, we could be left with an even 3 vs 3.  While these examples are definitely oversimplified, the point is that imbalances become bigger as participation dwindles.

And guess what dwindles starting on the Friday before Thanksgiving week!

Today's imbalance happens to be in favor of bond sellers.  It's not necessarily a massive imbalance, but it's enough to make for a pronounced move heading into the afternoon hours.  The timing isn't much of a coincidence either.  European bond markets add to the overall liquidity.  When they closed at noon, it didn't take long for domestic markets to see that there were more sellers than buyers.  Several lenders have already repriced and more should follow unless we get a big bounce fairly quickly.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-04 : -0-06
FNMA 3.5
103-10 : -0-04
FNMA 4.0
105-29 : -0-04
Treasuries
2 YR
0.9010 : +0.0090
10 YR
2.2610 : +0.0150
30 YR
3.0210 : +0.0140
Pricing as of 11/20/15 1:47PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:02PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Liquidity Breaking Down; Negative Reprices Becoming Probable
12:32PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Modest Increase in Negative Reprice Risk for Some Lenders
10:41AM  :  Stocks and Bonds Gaining Ground--One More Than The Other

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Nathan Miller  :  "Want to thank you guys for all of your help yesterday, with a call to FNMA UW was able to get approval as a 2nd home for my deal with the dad buying a house by a college for his kid to live in while going to school."
Matt Hodges  :  "agree with Victor...great Day Ahead read."
Victor Burek  :  "excellent explanation about liquidity"
Matthew Graham  :  "
A new 'Day Ahead' has been issued:
It's Beginning To Look a Lot Like Thanksgiving "
Matthew Graham  :  "each coupon has a weighting if you click on it"
Matthew Graham  :  "3.5 is most relevant. 3.0 isn't irrelevant"
Victor Burek  :  "either that or the 3.5"
Victor Burek  :  "that's what I keep mine on"
Broker Guy17  :  "Are we watching the 3.0?"
Ted Rood  :  "Gotta love it when client from 5 years ago calls for a refi. Said "I googled you, and found you on Mortgage News Daily"!"