Bond markets began the overnight session in just slightly weaker territory, but never entered into a negative trend during. European bond markets rallied right from the time they opened (2am New York time), but only had a minimal positive effect on overnight Treasury trading. The result was a flat open for MBS and Treasuries.
The first few minutes of the domestic session saw bond markets lose an inconsequential amount of ground, but return to 'unchanged' by the 930am NYSE open. From then on, we've been in rally mode as stocks and and bonds engage in a classic, mild flight-to-safety.
As far as overt cause-and-effect is concerned, oil prices are one of the only obvious scapegoats. Oil started to fall earlier in the morning, but it's not uncommon for other markets to express a more generalized response to big moves in oil prices, which are now down to the lowest levels since late 2008.
All of the above helps bond markets distance themselves from last Thursday's rout. Friday was a promising day, but with today continuing in the same vein, we can increasingly view Thursday as a knee-jerk reaction to the ECB news--one that caused yields to move higher than they were prepared to go.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 100-13 : +0-09 | FNMA 3.5 103-19 : +0-07 | FNMA 4.0 106-06 : +0-06 |
Treasuries | 2 YR 0.9310 : -0.0160 | 10 YR 2.2290 : -0.0439 | 30 YR 2.9540 : -0.0579 |
Pricing as of 12/7/15 2:38PMEST |