• MBS and Treasuries both end nearly unchanged after some intraday volatility
  • 10's traded a range of 1.762 to 1.814.  Fannie 3.0s 102-17 to 102-24
  • NFP 215k vs 205k.  ISM data was the bigger problem, coming in hot (relatively)
  • Bonds shook off ISM data despite stock surge
  • Hurray bonds! 

The world may never know how close bond markets came to a major rally today.  For traders, the first day of the month is like a candy store for kids with fresh allowances lining their pockets.  It almost never happens that the first day of the month falls on NFP day.  NFP almost always comes after, thus keeping some of the potential volatility of the 1st day of the month under wraps.

This time around, not only did we have NFP, but NFP also did very little to push markets in either direction.  Traders figured that ISM Manufacturing would be somewhere close to consensus, and were thus free to start spending their candy money.  Up until ISM, bonds were winning and stocks were losing.

With equities markets still very much at risk of continuing a massive reversal toward bear market territory--like they have every 7 years like clockwork--it wouldn't have taken much more of a push for stock selling to go exponential.  Had that happened, bonds would have been happy to reap some of the benefits.  

2016-4-1 Close

Instead, ISM came in hot, with a particularly big beat in New Orders and Prices Paid.  It put an end to the bond buying and stock selling and ultimately helped stocks pick a direction for the day.  It's not for nothing that bonds continued to hold their ground even as stocks soared.  It says a lot about the fact that 10yr yields didn't move down under 1.80 on a lark.  This trend is still a trend until it's not a trend anymore (white lines).

2016-4-1 Trend


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-22 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7740 : -0.0100
Pricing as of 4/1/16 6:46PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:02PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Considerations
10:17AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: An Actual Reprice Alert For a Few Lenders
10:11AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Stronger ISM Data Threatening Post-NFP Recovery
8:37AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: First Move is Weaker Following NFP (but maybe not for long?)

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "some good gains today. I think we'll get more within most borrowers' windows, but I'd definitely be more inclined to lock today if the lender in question seemed to price in a good amount of the week's rally."
Wendy Smith  :  "Yeah, I'm inclined to lock. I did leave to client's call, but he wants to put it back to my judgment"
Hugh W. Page  :  "When I have decent gains in my immediate rear view window and I'm less than 30 days form closing it's time to pull the trigger and rest easy."
Hugh W. Page  :  "Lock: Protect recent gains. Float: Hope and pray we stay flat or better and I can get to 15 days."
Christopher Stevens  :  "closing w/in 30 days I would lock. Rates are best we have seen in a month."
aaron meyer  :  "Wendy ask your client to weight the risk/reward, it should always be their call"
Wendy Smith  :  "Best arguments for lock? Best arguments for float? Closing 3rd week in April"
Christopher Stevens  :  "Pushed the float boat a little further from shore today"
Matthew Graham  :  "I think the biggest market movers will be the broader themes and stocks. If data will move the needle, the biggest potential early next week is ISM Services on Tuesday"
David Wenninger  :  "Any market moving data early next week?"