• Today could have been better and worse.  
  • Bright note: 10yr yields still holding under 1.80, mortgage rates are unchanged.  
  • Sour note: 10's barely held 1.80 and can't seem to get solid momentum going in the other direction.

Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory as risk markets (stocks, oil prices) improved overnight.  10yr yields hit the domestic session roughly 2bps higher than yesterday's latest levels.  From there, the opening tradeflow momentum (trades that traders were waiting to make until the CME opening bell) kicked off a brief recovery.  It was helped along by very weak Housing Starts data.

Treasuries made it almost all the way back to unchanged and MBS briefly traded into positive territory before things deteriorated again.  This time around, it was a solid pop in oil prices and a small deluge of corporate bond launches.  That means that new supply was confirmed as hitting the bond market today.  The supply competes with Treasuries and MBS (among other things) for investor attention.  Investors already know these deals are coming, but they don't always know the exact time or day they will hit.   

Weakness was fairly swift heading into the 11am hour and it took Treasuries to the weakest levels of the month.  That said, 10yr yields maxed out at 1.806 and ultimately made it back into the 1.78's by the 3pm official close.  Things are starting to look tense in terms of what might happen in the near future despite the silver lining seen in the form of today's rate sheets remaining unchanged. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-17 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7870 : +0.0160
Pricing as of 4/19/16 4:21PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:41PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Isolated, Limited, Barely-Worth-Mentioning Negative Reprice Risk
10:38AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Shun Econ Data; Negative Reprice Risk Increasing

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "heavily dependent on the investor, but sure, any big supply is big supply. It also didn't likely help that the bond offering itself was a globally "risk-positive," thus helping stocks and oil. It wasn't a surprise though (Argentina said they would issue about 15 bln several weeks ago)."
Sung Kim  :  "Argentina bond sale do anything to us today? 16.5bn in supply"
Eric Weishaar  :  "Printing them now, will have stick man under a falling rock that is labeled Watch for overlays, like the road sign, perfect :)"
Matthew Graham  :  "don't forget to wear the official MBS Live "Watch for Overlays" T-shirt while running tricky scenarios."
Sung Kim  :  "Watch for overlays"
Sung Kim  :  "It won't even get to a decision on LP if it picks up the dispute"
Sung Kim  :  "True"
Scott Valins  :  "True or False? IF LP gives an accept it is fine with disputes on credit and makes no reference to them whereas DU will give an A/E but may note that disputes must be removed"